Interest rates were largely resolved. Instead, investors paid attention to the Fed’s economic forecasts for the year.
The so -called point story, which is released once a quarter, summarizes the forecasts of the Fed at interest rates, inflation and growth, among other things. The Fed retained its average projection for two quarter of the points for 2025.
Investors were convinced that the Fed would constantly relate to interest rates, that is, it has little effect on capital prices. However, the point site really moved the markets.
All three main indicators fell sharply at 2 pm when the Fed released its forecast after entered the morning session. The rest of the day was a gust of all three indicators. The main schedules were all the sharp peaks and valleys.
Ultimately, they settled around where the day started.
The S&P 500 closed by 0.03%and Chain Jones declined by 0.1%. A Nasdaq It was the only one of the three, which was in a positive territory for the day, ended by 0.13%. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ remain positive today, which is 1.9% and 1.4% respectively.
This last point story was a prelude to STAGFlation, the most catastrophic economic scenarios. Investors hoped that the worst of their upheaval of the year was behind them. After the brutal April, which saw the shares, bonds and US dollar, will fall behind the tariff policy of President Donald Trump, heavily recovered.
But the latest Fed forecasts have caused fears that may not be the case. Inflation and unemployment forecasts grew and growth flooded. Anything that is even a STAGFlation’s offer can put markets for great readiness. In the DOT plot, the main inflation expectations increased to a peak of 3.1% compared to 2.8% in March, and the projected unemployment rate marked to 4.5% of 4.4%.
But any forecast and plan are responsible for the change, said the chairman of the federal reserve server Jerome Powell during a press conference on Wednesday.
“These individual forecasts are always uncertain, and, as I have noted, uncertainty is unusually increased,” Powell said. “And, of course, these forecasts are not a plan and a decision of the Committee.”
As the markets struggle with internal uncertainty, they were met by another war in the Middle East. An extended conflict between Israel and Iran has added a new significant wrinkles that investors will have to take into account in their decisions. Whenever the Middle East is speaking, oil markets often occupy the central scene. In the early days of the war, both countries bombed each other’s refineries.
On Wednesday, oil futures fell by 3% in 25 minutes before recovering throughout the day. Then they flew about 2.3%, returned to the positive territory before dropping in the late hours of the day. At the time of publication, they decreased by 0.1%.
As the oil prices go, the same green appeal. At least most of the time. The US dollar (DXY) index increased by 0.16% per day. This trajectory lasted two days of positive steps according to the index, which fell on Monday to 98.
