French President Emmanuel Macron called early elections in July to get what he called “clarification” from voters about the leadership and direction they want for the country.
Voters brought clarity to his party’s sharp loss and a hung parliament revolted just three months later. the overthrow of the prime minister chosen by the presidentMichel Barnier, on reducing the budget deficit.
Now there are some simple solutions for Macron as he searches for a way out of the mess his competitors (and even some of his allies) have created for themselves.
“It is difficult to find a path to stability,” admitted Francois Patriot, a senator who has long supported Macron.
With his party lacking a parliamentary majority, Macron was ousted from domestic affairs during Barnier’s brief tenure, but the prime minister’s downfall temporarily puts the president back in the driver’s seat.
Macron must now choose a new prime minister who he hopes will last longer Barnierdespite facing an equally complex parliamentary equation where three blocs, none of which has a majority, are vying for control.
A deadline for next year’s budget is also looming, forcing Macron to act quickly, although stopgap measures may be taken to avoid a US-style shutdown.
While it took the president two months to oust Barnier, Macron will have to find a replacement sooner this time. Any delay risks making him look weak and further jittering financial markets — borrowing costs in France soared last week on fears Barnier’s budget gambit would fail.
A prolonged stalemate could also increase the drumbeat of calls for Macron to step down and call early presidential elections before his term expires in 2027.
The president is due to address the nation Thursday night to explain the way forward. He has already begun scouting potential candidates for Matignon, the prime minister’s office, and is said to want to nominate someone in the coming days.
Names circulating in the French media include the loyal Sébastien Lecorne; Defense Minister Francois Bayroux, another ally and veteran centrist; and Bernard Cazeneuve, former Socialist Prime Minister. A technocratic government run by a civil servant or non-political figure is also possible.
At stake for Macron is surviving the remainder of his second term while protecting what remains of his record, particularly on the economy, where he has implemented pro-business reforms and cut taxes.
But the president’s ability to fix the situation has been undermined by the decline of his centrist Revival party after a snap election in July, and the rest of parliament can no longer dictate terms to potential partners.
With little tradition of coalition-building in France, Macron was brought together instead, urging rival political parties to work together to ensure stability and at least pass a budget.
His task was complicated by the right-wing leader Marine Le Pen and her national party, Unity, as well as the ultra-left France Without Humility, were buoyed by their joint success in ousting Barnier.
Franck Alissot, a senior RN lawmaker, said the party would continue to advance its priorities, such as increasing the purchasing power of the French and reducing immigration. “By definition, our demands remain in force, whoever is prime minister, as the expectations of our voters have not changed,” said Alicio, who did not rule out the possibility that the party could topple the government again.
The formation of a coalition is complicated by the fact that political heavyweights lead different parties and factions of parliament fighting to succeed Macron.
“They are all obsessed with the 2027 election, which will determine the behavior of party leaders” such as Le Pen and far-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon, said Jean Garrig, a historian who specializes in the French parliament and constitution. “That’s what makes it so difficult to reach a compromise in parliament.”
Some leading players have called for a different approach to choosing the next prime minister, suggesting instead that MPs agree on a form of non-aggression pact between the willing parties that would set out a few key policies to be pursued in exchange for an agreement not to overthrow the government.
Boris Vallot, head of the Socialist group in the assembly, said he would be open to such an initiative, without specifying whether the group would completely break away from its current allies on the left, who oppose any cooperation with Macron. Left leaders have made it clear that they will demand Mignon in return for such cooperation, which risks resistance from the RN.
Gabriel Athal, Macron’s former prime minister and head of the centrist Ensemble for the Republic party, called for a similar alliance that spans the moderate left to the moderate right but excludes what he called the “extremists”.
“It would get us all out of a situation where the government is held hostage by Marine Le Pen,” he said, though he admitted he didn’t know if that was possible.
Amid heightened politicking, the 2025 budget to replace the one derailed by Wednesday’s vote – which was supposed to address France’s deteriorating public finances – is still set to be passed.
If parliament and the government can’t meet the constitutional deadline to pass it – which has happened only twice in modern French history – temporary fixes such as emergency law and executive action to repeal tax-and-spend rules may have to be made. from the previous year.
Analysts at investment bank Morgan Stanley, who see this as the most likely scenario, say it would push the deficit to 6.3 percent in 2025 – up from about 6.1 percent this year – up from 5.6 percent predicted in Barnier’s belt-tightening plan. .
The temporary fixes “would lead to a budget in 2025 that would not have the tax increases planned in the current plan that would reduce the deficit,” said Jean-Francois Houvrard, executive director of economic research at Morgan Stanley.
The worst-case scenario could be an unprecedented failure to pass a full 2025 budget after a new government takes office in January.
“This is where we enter uncharted territory,” said constitutional law expert Denis Baranger of the University of Paris-Pantheon-Assas. “It’s a point that’s not really covered in the constitution.”
Illustration by Aditi Bhandari
