Swapo is the latest ruling party in Africa to suffer losses

Swapo, Namibia’s ruling party, has retained its grip on power after 30 years, although its grip has been loosened – the latest in an African country where incumbents have had a difficult time this year.

According to official results, Swapo candidate Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah won the presidential election with 57% of the vote, becoming the country’s first female leader.

The opposition refused to accept the result after the vote was marred by logistical problems and irregularities.

Other important questions still to be answered are how Swapo increased its share of the presidential vote when it recorded its worst ever performance in parliamentary elections, losing 12 of its 63 seats and barely retaining its parliament. the majority

Swapo is not alone in experiencing major electoral setbacks.

This year has been the “annual horror” for governments in sub-Saharan Africa facing voters at the ballot box.

In every election held in the region this year under reasonably democratic conditions, the ruling party lost a significant number of seats or lost power altogether.

This trend is driven by a combination of factors:

• Economic collapse
• Public intolerance of corruption is growing
• and the emergence of more sustainable and well-organized opposition parties.

The trend is likely to continue till 2025.

One of the most striking aspects of the elections in 2024 is that many have resulted in landslide defeats for governments that previously had a strong hold on power – including countries that have never experienced change at a high level before.

The Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which has ruled the country since independence in 1966, was crushed in October’s general election.

In addition to losing power, the BDP went on the verge of extinction, holding 38 seats in the 69-strong parliament.

After winning just four seats, the BDP is now one of the smallest parties in parliament and faces an uphill battle to remain politically relevant.

The ruling party suffered a heavy defeat in Mauritius in November, where the Alliance LePep coalition, led by Pravind Jagnauth of the militant Socialist Movement, won just 27% of the vote and fell to just two seats in parliament.

With the opposition Alliance du Change winning 60 of the 66 seats available, Mauritius has experienced one of the most complete political transformations imaginable.

Senegal and the self-proclaimed republic of Somaliland also saw opposition victories.

In the case of Senegal, the political turn is striking in a different way than in Botswana.

Just weeks before the election, the main opposition leaders, Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Osmane Sonko, were rotting in jail as President Macky Sall’s government abused its power in a desperate bid to avoid defeat.

Growing domestic and international pressure led to the release of Faye and Sonko, Faye won the presidency in the first round of voting, with the government candidate garnering only 36% of the vote.

Even in cases where governments are not defeated, their reputation and political control are severely damaged.

Like Swapo, South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) retained power but saw less than 50% of the vote in a national election for the first time since the end of white-minority rule in 1994.

This forced President Cyril Ramaphosa to enter a coalition government, ceding 12 cabinet posts to other parties, including powerful positions such as home affairs.

As a result, a region best known for governments that have managed to hold on to power for decades has seen 12 months of vibrant, hotly contested, multiparty politics.

Exceptions are countries such as Chad and Rwanda where elections are not free or fair, or where governments are accused by opposition and rights groups of resorting to a combination of rigging and repression to avoid defeat. Mozambique.

Three trends combined to make it a particularly difficult year to be in power.

In Botswana, Mauritius, and Senegal, growing public concern about corruption and abuse of power eroded government credibility.

Opposition leaders were able to play on popular anger over nepotism, financial mismanagement and the failure of leaders to uphold the rule of law to expand their support base.

In Mauritius and Senegal in particular, the ruling party undermined its claim to be a government committed to respecting political rights and civil liberties – a dangerous misstep in countries where the majority of citizens are committed to democracy and which have seen opposition victories in the past. .

The perception that governments are mismanaging the economy is especially important because many people experienced a tough year financially.

High food and fuel prices have increased the cost of living for millions of citizens, increasing their frustration with the status quo.

As well as underpinning some government defeats this year, economic anger has been the main driving force behind the youth-led protests in Kenya that rocked President William Ruto’s government in July and August.

This is not an African phenomenon, but a global one.

Popular discontent over inflation played a role in the defeat of Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party in the UK and the victory of Donald Trump and the Republican Party in the United States.

Perhaps most unique about the transfer of power in Africa this year is the way opposition parties have learned from the past.

In some cases, such as Mauritius, this has meant developing new ways to try and protect the vote by ensuring that every step of the electoral process is carefully watched.

In others, it means forming new coalitions to present voters with a united front.

For example, in Botswana, three opposition parties and several independent candidates came together under the umbrella banner of Democratic Change to comprehensively mobilize the BDP.

Similar trends could make life difficult for Ghana’s New Patriotic Party (NPP) in Saturday’s election and pose major problems for President Lazarus Chakwera’s Malawian government when general elections come in 2025.

If Ghana sees a transfer of power, sub-Saharan Africa will experience five opposition victories in 2024 – more than any other year in its history.

It is particularly notable that many governments are being given an electorally bloody nose in the face of a global democratic decline that has seen the rise of authoritarianism in some regions.

Despite the number of entrenched authoritarian regimes that continue to exist, it suggests that Africa has a greater degree of democratic resilience than is often recognized.

Civil society groups, opposition parties and citizens have mobilized in large numbers to demand accountability and punish governments that have failed economically and democratically.

International governments, organizations and activists looking for new ways to protect democracy around the world should pay more attention to a region that is perceived as an inhospitable environment for multiparty politics, but has seen more examples of democratic bounce-back than other regions. of the world.

Nick Cheeseman is Director of the Center for Elections, Democracy, Accountability and Representation at the University of Birmingham, UK.