Ballot papers will be counted on the second day of counting in the Irish general election on December 1, 2024 at the Dublin RDS center in Dublin.
Ben Stansall | Afp | Getty Images
Ireland’s election appears to have ensured victory for the centre-right parties that have dominated the country’s politics for nearly a century, signaling continuity for the business community but widespread discontent over many social issues.
Fianna Fáil led by Michael Martin and Fine Gael led by Simon Harris, By Monday afternoon it was possible to form A coalition falls just shy of a parliamentary majority in the 174-seat Dáil and is widely expected to get support from one or two smaller opposition parties to form a government.
A key question is who will take on the role of Irish leader Taoiseach, given that Harris currently holds the role but Fianna Fáil will be the largest party. A repeat of the rotating power-sharing arrangement is a possibility in 2020, when the two parties previously mediated. entered the Union first.
Friday’s vote produced some shock losses for high-profile names, as well as disappointment for former coalition member the Green Party – which retained just one of 12 seats – and challenger Sinn Féin, which has the same number of TDs (MPs) as Fine Gael, but is unable to launch its own coalition talks. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have Partnership ruled out With the Left Party.
The result “breaks the trend seen internationally this year for weak current election results,” analysts at investment firm Davy said in a note.
“The only surprise is that there are no surprises. That’s what the voters said we wanted, or at least that’s the result of the election,” Laurent Muzelek, dean of Dublin’s Trinity Business School, told CNBC by phone.
“Underlying that, however, is frustration from a growing part of the Irish population that has not been captured in this election. Sinn Féin has not captured this sense of frustration, seen in the fact that there is a low voter turnout. 59% turnout, talking to people, you have a different feeling than the result suggests,” Muzelek continued.
Chief among those problems is the country’s dire housing crisis, which has seen an increase in homelessness, particularly in the capital, Dublin, Muzelek said.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have made some commitments to increase housing supply, but the iterative nature of coalition formation means it is unclear exactly which elements of the manifesto will be implemented next, Muzelek noted.
Some of it may have shown dissatisfaction Exit surveys This includes just 27% naming Fine Gael’s Harris as their preferred leader, 35% for Fianna Fáil’s Martin and 34% for Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald.
Business profit
Economists have questioned whether the country faces an economic threat from the re-election of Donald Trump in the US as he threatens universal tariffs and an “America first” protectionist stance.
“Among all euro zone members, Ireland is the most vulnerable to US trade losses,” economists Andrew Cunningham and Jack Allen-Reynolds of Capital Economics said in a note last month.
US demand accounts for about 1.5% of euro zone economic activity versus 1.7% in Germany and 7% in Ireland, according to the research group, which says Ireland sends a disproportionate share of its exports to the US.
“The economy could be impacted by the US corporate tax cut if US-based multinationals are persuaded to relocate their operations from Ireland to the US. Given its other strengths, we remain optimistic about Ireland’s economic future,” the economist continued.
Laurent Muzelek of Trinity Business School told CNBC that the recent election result confirms that there is no significant political movement in Ireland to push its own protectionist shift away from its open economy.
It is “still a great place to do business, still open to global companies and as pro-business as it has been for the last 30 or 40 years,” he said.
Muzelek continued that while a Trump presidency could affect companies’ decisions about where to locate in the future, especially in the pharmaceutical industry where manufacturing facilities are involved, the likelihood of any sort of exodus is very low.
“For big companies, they were initially here for tax reasons but now they are established with thousands of employees,” he said. “Most of these jobs are in sales and customer service for EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa), so they need to stay in Europe, so if they leave Ireland, where do they go? The UK is no longer part of the European Union, France is politically unstable – their other options are limited.”
