Supporting the fall of Michel Barnier’s French government is Marine Le Pen’s most vindicating moment.
This could lead to France’s best chance of power yet as the head of France’s far-right National Rally.
“I am not calling for the resignation of Emmanuel Macron,” he said, but he made it absolutely clear that he is responsible for France’s political crisis and “the pressure on the president will get stronger and stronger”.
Before she decided to force Barnier’s downfall, she said she was not the “master of the clocks” — the one dictating the agenda.
But that may be exactly what she is now, bringing down her second government after defeating Emmanuel Macron for a second term in 2022.
With his presidency looking fragile, Le Pen seems to have the upper hand.
However, this situation is not without great risks for her.
Le Pen has played the waiting game for years as the leader of the national rally. She may be closer to power now – but she has to make big choices.
Pushing for a vote of no confidence “is a considerable risk because people are now wondering whether they are really acting in the country’s interests or in their own, personal interests,” says Armin Steinbach, a professor at HEC business school in Paris.
“Clearly it’s not about Barnier … it’s trying to topple and undermine Macron, obviously for his own personal ambitions to become the next president,” he told the BBC.
Le Pen has long sought to “normalize” the National Rally (RN) in the eyes of the French people, rebranding it from her father’s old National Front six years ago.
Flash forward a few months to France’s snap parliamentary elections RN came first with 32% of the votes. Even though she could only manage third place in the run-off round, her mission was almost complete.
Now in the dying days of 2024, French voters are taking a gamble on whether they are acting in the national interest in toppling a weak government as they object to its 2025 budget, which aims to reduce France’s budget deficit by 6%. National Product, or GDP.
Barnier had already conceded many of his demands on social security – but Le Pen decided this was not enough.
There are real economic risks for France, as well as real political risks for Le Pen in supporting a left-sponsored no-confidence vote.
After just three months in the job, Barnier has appealed to MPs to act in France’s greater interest, while Le Pen’s party leader Jordan Bardella has accused him of adopting “fear tactics”.
Le Pen’s colleagues are sensing Macron’s potential downfall.
RN adviser Philippe Olivier told Le Monde that the president was “a fallen republican monarch, with his shirt open and a rope around his neck until the next dissolution (of parliament)”.
Macron’s surprise decision to call early parliamentary elections in June plunges France into a political crisis it is only now finding itself in.
Le Pen’s argument is that Barnier has not included enough of his demands in his budget, but Barnier said his budget “doesn’t aim to please” – and accused him of “trying to engage in a kind of bidding war” on his time. Negotiations.
An RN leader could plunge France “into the great political and economic unknown,” in the words of Le Figaro deputy editor Vincent Tremollet de Villers.
Although Macron is responsible for France’s economic condition in her eyes, she does not want to be labeled as the politician who plunged France into economic turmoil.
“This is the result of a seven-year hobby and a spectacular drift in our public finances,” he said.
There are plenty of French voters who want Macron gone before his term ends in 2027. Recent polls show that at least 62% of voters believe the president should resign if Barnier’s government falls.
Even if Le Pen has yet to do so, the national rally will resonate with a wider electorate.
But the RN leader has other issues behind the scenes that her critics believe could influence her judgement.
On March 31, a French court will rule against her and other parties in the long-running trial Allegations of misuse of European Parliament funds.
Prosecutors want her to go to prison and face a five-year ban from public office.
In that case, his hope of winning the presidency would be false.
For Marine Le Pen this moment really could be now or never.
She has run for higher office three times. She stands a strong chance of winning if she runs a fourth time in the coming months.
Jordan Bardella is already considered more popular than Le Pen in the national rally and beyond, and given Macron’s tenure, the 29-year-old party chief is the favorite to run in 2027.
No French government has fallen after a no-confidence vote since 1962.
Get it wrong and Le Pen might not be forgiven the next time France goes to the polls.
