France’s political crisis is worse than ordinary political crises.
Usually when a democratic country goes through turmoil, there is some expectation that the turmoil will end.
Not today in Paris. If anything, the fall of Michel Barnier – toppled in parliament by a vote of no confidence – threatens to set a precedent for what’s to come.
If Barnier — a center-right moderate with a reputation for courtesy and compromise — can’t pass a budget, who else can?
The root cause of the crisis is not far away. It has split into three roughly equal blocs since July in the National Assembly, with none ready to face the other.
As a result the two factions that form the opposition are always able to oust the one faction that forms the government.
Add to this a mutinous mood on some opposition benches – as well as an ideological push for more generous spending pledges despite stark warnings about the national debt – and the idea of a return to calm centrist politics seems far-fetched.
At stake is the fate of the institutions of the Fifth Republic, a regime in crisis for many.
At a time of national crisis the Fifth Republic was formed to concentrate power in the hands of Charles de Gaulle. And since de Gaulle, presidents have tried to emulate his stance — and often failed.
Macron certainly liked to compare himself to Le Grand Charles.
But when De Gaulle faced a similar government crisis in 1962, he went to the people and secured a massive mandate in the next election.
Macron has done the reverse. He had his vote – the election in July – and lost it. Power now shifted from his hands to the hands of the Prime Minister who was answerable to Parliament.
But even as the country reverts to a parliamentary system, the Assembly itself has proved incapable of action.
As more than one commentator has pointed out, France – with its monarchical tendencies and top-down conception of power – never developed a culture of compromise.
So the three factions in the assembly today – installed by voters after Macron’s dissolution in June – are incapable of creating a constructive environment for government.
As veteran journalist Eric Brunet said after watching the debate this evening on BFMTV: “What we’ve seen now is jaw-dropping French.
“There is no business. Just theory. All discourse is about values, about extremes. Our entire discourse is disconnected from reality. It is characteristically, singularly French.
Some see it as the culmination of years of France refusing to face economic reality – governments of all hues have issued calls for ever-growing public spending. The result is a deficit and debt that can only be solved by cuts, which no government can ever implement.
According to Nicolas Beytout, of the pro-business L’Opinion newspaper, this is the start of a series of crises which – paradoxically – the country actually needs. Because only by facing the economic abyss will voters, parties – and the country – accept the tough decisions that lie ahead.
Bétout predicts that any new prime minister will face the same problems as Barnier and fail like him.
“A new government needs time, which it won’t have. It needs a majority, which it won’t have. And it needs the determination to see through the necessary cuts in state spending – which it won’t have.
“So I expect to see several more impeachment motions and several more falls of government – before we finally start to wake up.”
