After less than four months in power, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government is in power lost No-confidence vote in Parliament over Social Security budget dispute.
On Wednesday evening, 331 French lawmakers from left and right-wing parties, out of a total of 577 lawmakers, voted in favor of removing the EU’s former Brexit negotiator and his administration in France’s lower house of parliament.
Barnier, 73, will formally tender his resignation to French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday morning. The last time a prime minister resigned after a vote of no confidence was in 1962, when PM Michel Debre, who served under Charles de Gaulle, the founding father of the Fifth Republic and president of France, resigned over the Algerian crisis.
Barnier’s resignation would throw Paris into political chaos for the second time this year but also leave the country without a 2025 budget.
A statement from the Elysée Palace said President Macron will address the nation on Thursday evening about what lies ahead.
What is the reason for the vote of no confidence?
French MPs from the country’s leftist coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP), tabled the vote. opposed to Barnier’s latest austerity budget. This was later supported by the far-right National Rally (RN), with Barnier trying to push the budget through parliament without a vote.
His budget bill included tax increases worth 60 billion euros ($63.2bn) and government spending cuts to social security and welfare worth about 40 billion euros ($42.1bn) designed to address the country’s deficit.
France’s public deficit is equivalent to about 6.1 percent of its gross domestic product. Barnier has stated his intention to bring it in line with European Union rules, which require countries to keep the budget deficit ratio above 3 percent.
“The choice we made was to protect the French,” Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right RN, told French broadcaster TF1 on Wednesday after the confidence vote. The RN wanted Barnier’s budget to include a provision to repeal increases in state pensions and medical reimbursement cuts, among other budget concession demands.
“The key figure for the current situation is Emmanuel Macron. Dissolution and censorship are the result of his policies and this substantial rift that exists between him and the French today,” he said.
Speaking to France’s BFM TV on Monday, Mathilde Panot of the leftist France Unbod (La France Insoumise, LFI) parliamentary group said: “This historic event is a powerful symbol: whatever happens, people can change the course of history. . Now Macron must go. France has opposed Anbod Macron’s administration after a pension scheme reform that raised the national retirement age.
Experts say the unity of the left and the right in France on this issue indicates a deep dissatisfaction with the current government.
“I think I’m surprised that it (the vote of no confidence) took place,” Gesin Weber, a research fellow at the Paris office of the German Marshall Fund in the United States, told Al Jazeera.
“I didn’t expect the RN party to support anything brought from the left. But on the other hand, I think it tells you a lot about the strategy of these political parties to see this government fall and slowly poison the political atmosphere and drive Macron out of power,” she added.
What does this mean for Macron?
Macron, who has been France’s president since 2017, has a mandate until 2027, when the country’s next presidential elections are held. However, a number of opposition figures such as Panot and RN adviser Philippe Olivier have called for him to step down quickly.
“There is no obligation or expectation that he will resign – this is something that some in the opposition are requesting/suggesting. France is a semi-presidential system and the government and the presidency are two separate bodies,” Marta Lorimer, a politics lecturer at Cardiff University in the UK, told Al Jazeera.
Weber pointed out that while Macron could step down early if he wanted to, that was highly unlikely.
“There is a balance Court case Against Le Pen will be decided next spring. The most likely outcome of this case is that she may not be allowed to run for office again or to run for any political office. So Macron will use this to his advantage, he said.
Le Pen is currently on inquiry Along with other members of her party accused of misusing EU funds – a claim she denies.
Meanwhile, pressure is mounting on the Elysée Palace as the nation waits to find out how Macron will form the next government.
Who will Macron appoint as Prime Minister now?
At this point, it’s hard to say.
The French president already Criticized for their choice of prime minister, especially from the NFP, which won the most votes in July’s snap parliamentary elections. To appease the far-right, he chose Barnier, who won the most votes in the first round of voting but lost in the second – after the center and left parties joined forces to block the far-right. Deselecting some candidates Round two.
“In short, (Macron) preferred an agreement with the ultra-liberal right and the far-right over one with the left, in order to continue ultraliberal policies, despite the clear rejection of the majority of French people,” Jonathan Machler, a civil society activist and member of the French Communist Party, told Al Jazeera.
“This impeachment motion will end the illegitimate government that some were betting on. It is good for our democracy,” he said.
According to Lorimer, whoever Macron chooses next will struggle to find a stable majority.
“They can go for another minority cabinet, maybe get some form of non-combat agreement. For example, if they appoint someone from the left, they have to get an agreement and right from the center not to vote no-confidence against them,” he said.
“He could also look at the technocratic profile, and appoint someone with a fairly narrow mandate but at least give France a chance to vote on a budget law for the year 2025. Finally, he could try again and facilitate the formation of a broad coalition. Center, center-right and center-left but this To do that, he must first get the left to break,” Lorimer added.
Weber hopes Macron will appoint a short-term caretaker government to pass a provisional budget to France, preventing the country from plunging into financial crisis.
What does this mean for Le Pen?
French far-right leader Le Pen, whose RN political party was tipped to win July’s snap elections after winning the most votes in the first round, is keen to become the country’s president in 2027.
The vote has thrown France into political turmoil, with some analysts saying his party’s vote against Barnier could be dangerous to his presidential aspirations.
“Le Pen is now in full ‘damage control’ mode,” Lorimer said.
“She realizes that a vote of no confidence, thereby plunging France into serious political and economic turmoil, runs counter to the ‘respectability’ strategy she is pursuing,” Lorimer said.
“It is for this reason that he is almost remorseful in his response to the fall of the Barnier government: the party line is ‘We have no pleasure in bringing down the government, but we were forced to do so because the alternative was worse,'” Lorimer said.
Speaking to France’s news network, TF1, on Wednesday night, Le Pen said: “We voted to condemn the government to protect the French people from this budget.
“We have been constructive from the beginning and we will be with the next prime minister who needs to propose a new budget. All we want is to respect our voters and listen to their demands.
How did the people of France react?
Barbara Derbois*, who lives in Avignon, southeastern France, told Al Jazeera she was wondering if her country had been hit by “la tragedy” (disaster).
However, France is used to such lows, he said. “Look at our football team, they can be world champions and be quite lame after four years. We expect a new prime minister soon… I’m betting on Article 16 if the government falls again.
Article 16 of the French constitution gives the president extraordinary powers to make decisions when French institutions or territory are threatened.
French people are “more tired of Macron and his ultra-liberal and increasingly right-wing policies than of the current, temporary instability,” Machler said. Often, they see a change in some of their policies as a direct result of this vote of no confidence.
He noted that discontent with Macron’s policies has flared up in France — which has been demonstrated at times. 2018 Yellow Vest Movement (Protests against fuel tax hike) 2023 Retirement Pension Movement (Protests against Macron’s pension reforms and his plan to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64) 2023 protests against police violence, 2024 Farmers’ Protests (demonstrations demanding better wages and protection from foreign competition), feminist movements and more recently Palestine protest.
“I would say there is a mix of relief, hope and concern given the unprecedented nature of the situation,” he said.
“The solution is inevitable because the proposed budget (and which provoked the condemnation movement) deepened Macron’s destructive policies. There is hope, because if Macron ever accepts the NFP’s victory (in snap elections) a change in policies can finally be implemented.
What does this mean for Europe?
Political instability in France comes as factions brace for a Donald Trump presidency in the US. Trump will visit the French capital over the weekend for the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.
Shyree Malhotra, deputy director and Europe fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, said Europe is an uncertain time without leadership amid Trump’s presidency, which could adversely affect European security because of his disdain for NATO.
“Rather than outwardly projecting unity while the continent is still at war (Russia’s war in Ukraine), Europe’s leading member states like France and GermanyFacing political crises at home,” he told Al Jazeera.
“France is the eurozone’s second-largest economy and the EU’s primary military power, and President Macron has been a leading champion of European integration, which includes strengthening European defense. Even if Macron appoints a new prime minister, political instability in France is likely to continue … gridlock in decision-making,” he continued. .
“In Brussels, a new European Commission is taking shape amid upheaval from the right. But the unfortunate pushes and pulls of domestic politics mean little bandwidth for the Franco-German engine to engage with broader European stability and security.
