French Prime Minister Michel Barnier (C) looks on during a questions session to the government at the National Assembly in Paris on December 3, 2024.
Julian De Rosa | Afp | Getty Images
The French government was toppled in a no-confidence motion on Wednesday, plunging the euro zone’s second-largest economy into a period of deep political uncertainty.
A majority of lawmakers from both the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance and the right-wing National Rally (RN) supported the no-confidence motion in the country’s lower house.
Both left and right factions tabled motions on Monday after Prime Minister Michel Barnier exercised special constitutional powers. Push the Social Security Budget Bill through Parliament without a vote.
The National Rally voted both its own “Motion de Censor” against the government, as well as its support for the NFP’s motion. Either movement The support of at least 288 MPs (out of 574 MPs in the National Assembly) is required. To see the no confidence vote succeed. Together, the right-wing bloc and the left-wing alliance have approximately 333 lawmakers in parliament, although some lawmakers were expected to abstain from voting.
Losing the confidence vote means Barnier will be forced to resign by French President Emmanuel Macron just three months after he was installed as prime minister on September 5; Barnier’s rule in France’s Fifth Republic, which began in 1958, was short-lived.
The prime minister’s downfall comes after weeks of talks with opposition parties to try to find a deal on just one part of a broader 2025 budget that includes 60 billion euros ($63 billion) in spending cuts and tax increases needed to tame France. Budget deficit ie It is expected to stand at 6.1% in 2024.
In the end, however, Barnier’s minority government failed to win over opponents on both sides of the political spectrum. It faced the prospect of haggling over a broad budget to be passed by December 21 and succumbed to the whims of a national rally, It tacitly agreed to support the government until spending disagreements came to a head earlier this week.
The appointment of Barnier, a right-wing conservative from the Les Républiques party, was controversial in September, as it came after the RN and NFP won the respective rounds of parliamentary elections in June and July.
On Wednesday, ideologically distant factions shared animosity towards Barnier and the government. Their budget plans brought them together in what some analysts described as an “unholy alliance” of political foes.
What happens next?
Barnier is expected to resign immediately, although Macron has asked him to continue as interim prime minister while he searches for a replacement. New parliamentary elections cannot be held until next June-July, 12 months after the last poll.
As for the budget, the fall of Barnier and the government means “all their unfinished legislative business falls with them,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director for Europe at Eurasia Group.
An emergency budget is likely to be passed within months, effectively rolling over the 2024 tax legislation until the 2025 budget is agreed upon, Rahman said in emailed comments Monday. But time is of the essence to appoint a new prime minister as the 2025 budget cannot be passed by the caretaker government. pressure on Macron to quickly elect a new prime minister.
The formation of the government will be closely watched, according to Carsten Nickel, deputy director of research at risk consultancy Tenio, “including the level of Macron’s personal involvement in the process.” Nickel warned that Barnier’s caretaker status could be pulled as new elections are not possible before the summer.
Barnier’s fate is a stark warning to whoever he chooses as his next prime minister of the pitfalls and tripwires he or she must face in trying to reach consensus on the budget, given the deep divisions in French politics. Since Macron’s ill-judged decision to call snap elections earlier this year.
French President Emmanuel Macron leaves a polling station decorated with curtains displaying the colors of the French flag to cast his vote in the second round of France’s legislative elections at a polling station in Le Touquet, northern France, July 7, 2024.
Mohammad Badra | Afp | Getty Images
Macron returned from a three-day state visit to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday evening, keeping a low profile amid the political turmoil that has gripped the government in recent weeks — turmoil ultimately caused by his own decision. Now, Macron faces pressure on the appointment of a new prime minister and on his own position.
“Macron can appoint any prime minister he chooses to replace Barnier — including Barnier himself,” Rahman said, adding that France’s parliament “can condemn his new choice at any time.”
“But both Macron and the multi-divided parliamentary majority that oppose him must calculate their strategy carefully,” Rahman said.
“The left and the right must also be careful. If he condemns the new prime minister, there will be no legal authority to propose a roll-over, stopgap budget. The government could in theory shut down on January 1 if there is no law. A basis for raising taxes to pay for pensions or the police or health care or defense — or (the national ) salary of assembly representatives,” he noted.
Meanwhile, the president is likely to face demands from the left and right that he resign to hold a new presidential election much earlier than the election scheduled for 2027.
While Macron’s resignation could trigger presidential elections in 35 days, analyst Carsten Nickell noted, “While this may seem unlikely, snap polls earlier this year should at least serve as a reminder of Macron’s penchant for unilateral decisions.”
According to Eurasia Group’s Mujtaba Rahman, Macron may ignore all the pressure to resign, but “the new crisis puts him once again at the center of the political game.”
