America’s life expectancy will drop to 66th in the world in the coming decades, according to a major study.
Although the Americans are one of the richest countries In nearly 50 countries, they die less than their counterparts.
But a ‘worrisome trend of health challenges’, including obesity, drug abuse and suicide; To widen that gap.According to a Lancet study.
The researchers project that life expectancy for men and women in the US will increase from 78.3 years in 2022 to 79.9 years in 2035 and 80.4 years in 2050 for both men and women.
The proposed small increase is related to medical advances and the improvement of doctors. Checking and treating such chronic diseases Cancer and heart disease. But it is small compared to other countries.
For their analysis, researchers at the University of Washington assessed the impact of hundreds of diseases and other health risks on the United States and individual states and compared them with more than 200 other countries.
According to their models, By 2050, many sub-Saharan African countries will like it NigeriaKenya and south africaAlso war-torn countries like Syria, AfghanistanAnd countries like Algeria, Morocco and so on, Yemen makes more profit than the US. Tunisia Approaching or exceeding US standards.
Dr. Stein Emil Volsett, who led the new study, said: ‘The rapid rate of decline in the US between 2022 and 2050 sounds the alarm for urgent action.’
Nationwide, America has a life expectancy of 77.5 years, according to the CDC’s latest estimate.
Figure A shows the US’s position on the international life expectancy scale compared to other countries. Average life expectancy for the United States will rise from 78.3 years in 2022 to 80.4 in 2050, falling from 49th to 66th in the world. Figure C shows global life expectancy rates for the highest- and lowest-ranking U.S. states (plus Washington, D.C.) compared to 203 countries in the Global Burden of Disease Study. CA = California HI= Hawaii MA = Massachusetts. MN= Minnesota MS= Mississippi NY= New York. WV=West Virginia
He added that the US must ‘change course’ and develop new and more effective health strategies and policies that ‘mitigate future declines in health outcomes’.
Although the best health practices are in place and all key health risks have been completely eliminated in the US, it still remains as in other countries. CanadaIndia and China remain unchanged.
US Obesity leads the world.From cardiovascular disease and stroke to cancer and kidney disease, laundry is a significant risk factor.
Obesity plays a role An important role Shaping the trajectory of life expectancy in the US over the next three decades and beyond.
Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, said: “Despite modest increases in overall life expectancy, our models predict a decline in health gains due to increases in obesity, which is a serious risk factor. It is predicted to reach unprecedented levels for many chronic diseases.
The IHME predicts that 260 million Americans will be overweight or obese by 2050, representing an unimaginable public health crisis, Dr. Murray said.
Although life expectancy will increase modestly over time, many Americans will spend those extra years in poor health, with “particularly poor outcomes for women in the USA relative to women in other countries,” the study found.
Several states, including Kentucky and West Virginia, are expected to have worse health outcomes in 2050 than in 1990, with women’s health expected to maintain or decline between 1990 and 2050 in good health. 20 states.
The graph above shows life expectancy in the US from 1980 to 2022. There has been a slight increase in recent years, with data available from the National Vital Statistics System survey and the National Center for Population Estimates. Health statistics
West Virginia is projected to have the lowest life expectancy for men (about 73) and women (about 78) in 2050.
On the other hand, New York is expected to have the highest life expectancy for men (81.0 years), while Hawaii is expected to have the highest for women (85.5 years).
When comparing life and health expectancy in the best and worst performing states to other countries and states, levels are expected to decline over time.
In the year Hawaii, the best performer for life expectancy in 2022, will drop from 29th to 41st by 2050, while West Virginia, the worst performer, will fall from 102nd to 140th.
“Our findings have implications for America’s future health status, suggesting that the United States will not be able to sustain health gains worldwide unless concerted efforts are made to reduce exposure to key risk factors, such as obesity,” the researchers said. Mass index, high blood pressure, high sodium intake, smoking and drug use.
It’s an ongoing opioid epidemic. A unique American problem Arising from the actions of American pharmaceutical companies. While there are positive signs that the crisis is turning a corner, there is a ‘huge challenge’ to addressing public health issues, the researchers said.
The US recorded an 878 percent jump in the national death rate between 1990 and 2021 (from 2.0 deaths to 19.5 deaths per 100,000).
Between 2022 and 2050, the death rate is predicted to rise another 34 percent. This is the highest rate of drug use and death in the world and twice that of second place Canada.
Figure A: The reference scenario projects future health outcomes based on current trends, assuming no significant interventions or efforts to reduce key health risks. It shows life expectancy projections for the US, its territories and other countries/territories as a reference. Figure B: Combined risk reduction scenario for the US, its territories, and other countries/territories (includes efforts to reduce key health risk factors such as BMI and smoking rates)
This suggests to researchers that the progress made since binge drinking was declared a public health emergency in 2017 must be accelerated significantly to make a measurable difference.
Dr. Ali Mokdad, an epidemiologist at IHME and lead author of the study, said: “The predicted high prevalence of opioids over the next 30 years comes after a concerted effort by federal, state, and local government agencies and health systems.” In the year In 2017, the crisis was declared a public health emergency.
‘The opioid epidemic is far from over, and more effectiveness and expansion of programs to prevent and treat drug abuse is still needed.’
The researchers predicted what would happen if the US eliminated the major health problems — high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, high blood pressure, high sodium intake and smoking — by 2050.
More than 12 million deaths have been prevented. Deaths from diabetes, heart disease, and chronic kidney disease can be 85 to 100 percent lower than those who don’t make those changes.
But if other countries did the same, their people’s lives would be less saved than the US, which is already struggling to contain them.
“Increases in these conditions will not significantly improve America’s global ranking by 2050,” the researchers said.
