JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Diman, a witness to the hearing of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, called Wall Street’s Annual Supervisory at the Heart Building on December 6, 2023.
Tom Williams | Siku-roll Call, Inc. | Getty pictures
More Jamie diman Worry, his bank looks great.
Whenever JP Morgan Chase In recent years, the US economy has been larger, more profitable and more crucial, and its star CEO has raised more voices about what could be wrong – everything continues to be right for its bank.
At the best times and bad times, the public view of Diman is grim.
Let it be a forecast of their 2022 “Storm“Hitting the US economy, his concerns about the WWII post -world order or about him Warning The US seems to be lace with one-two recession and inflation, a report on every earnings, a TV look and an investor’s program with another terrible warning.
“Their record of leading the bank is unbelievable.” Ben MacovakMember of the Board of Four Banks and Investors through the Strategy Value of his organization. “Their record of making financial-daring forecasts is not good.”
JP Morgan, who has been running in its two decades, has helped to build a financial institution in the world, unlike any other world.
Extensive giant, Demons Bank, in his words, the final game, in both the main road banking and the Wall Street High Finance Winner When it comes to the matter of money. It has more branches, deposits and online users than any peer and is a major credit card and a small business franchise. It has a high market share in both trade and investment banking, and the TR moves more than the trillion on its global payment rails every day.
‘Warning Shot’
Diman’s annual investor’s 20 -year review Letters And their public statements show a unique evolution. He became CEO in 2006, and his first decade in JP Morgan’s helm was consumed by the US Housing Bubble, the 2008 financial crisis and its long -term, including the acquisition of two unsuccessful competitors, Bear Sterns And Washington Mutual.
However, by the time they begin their second decade, JP Morgan leads to JP Morgan, however, as the legal hangover began to fade from the mortgage crisis, Diman began to look at the new storm clouds on the horizon.
“There will be another crisis” he wrote in his April 2015 CEO LetterTelling on potential triggers and the latest gyres in US debt have pointed out that markets are a “warning shot”.
That part has often identified the start of financial warnings by DM, including the worries of the recession – it did not occur until the 2020 infectious disease triggered Two months of contraction – As well as concerns around market melting and lack of US.
But it has been recognized for a decade, in which JP Morgan’s performance began to lapped rivals. After the Billion gained an annual gain for a few years, the elaborate machine monitoring the Diman began to hit its strides.
JP Morgan earned an annual profit of six records from 2015 to 2024, twice as much as CEO as CEO. JP Morgan is now the world’s most valuable public financial institution, including Billion annually for technology, including 18 billion. PsychoanalysisTo stay that way.
While Dimon is constantly worried about the economy and the increasing geographical political turmoil, the US economy chauges. This means that the unemployment and consumer spending is more recovered than expected, which allows JP Morgan to take advantage of the record.
In 2022, Diman said to professional investors to a room to prepare for the financial storm: “Now, it is a kind of sunshine, work is doing well. Everyone thinks that the Fed can handle it,” said Diman, referring to the federal Reserve’s post-further economy.
“That is Storm It is right there, down the road, is coming on our way, ”he said.
“This is the most dangerous time the world has ever seen in decades,” Diman said in the next year’s earnings Release.
But investors who listened to Diman and made their portfolios more conservative have missed two years of the best run S&P 500 In decades.
‘You look like a fool’
“This is an interesting contradiction, no doubt,” said Macovak Diman’s download criticism and his bank’s performance.
“Part of this could be a brand-building of Jamie Demone,” the investors said. “Or if you have a win-winning narrative, you can say, ‘Oh, I called it’. And if not, your bank is still chugging.”
The U.S. According to the former president of the top five financial institution, the bankers know that it is wise to broadcast carefully than optimism. Past Sitter CEO Chuck Prince, for example, about the mortgage business in 2007, until playing music, you got Get up and dance. “
“One will know that if you are over -optimistic and things are wrong, one will know that your reputation has a lot of trouble,” the former executive said, asking to be anonymous to discuss Dimon. “It’s harmful to your bank, and you look foolish, but in other ways, you seem to be a very careful, thoughtful banker.”
The banking analyst Mike Mayo, a banking analyst of Wells Forgo, said that the banking is finally a business of the risks, and its CEOs should comply with the possibility of not repaying their loans.
“A good banker when the sun is shining is an old clich ೆಯಲ್ಲಿ cuwe; they are always looking around the corner, always aware of what might be wrong,” Mayo said.
But other long -term diman viewers will see something else.
According to Charles Peebadi, Portals Partners, Diman has a “outer intention” for his public comments.
“I think this rhetoric is to focus on the dangers of future risks, whether they occur or not,” Pebadi said. “With high-performance, high-growing franchise, they are trying to stop being satisfied, so I think they have a continuous combat room-like atmosphere in their culture.”
Last year, his bank made a profit of 58.5 billion, but there is no shortage of things to worry about. Conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza anger, US national debt grows and president Donald TrumpBusiness policies continue to assemble the reverse and allies.
A cemetery of bank logos
“It is fair to note that he is not omniscient and that everything he says is not true,” said Truest Bank analyst Brian Foron. “He comes more from the point of view that you should be prepared for x. We are convinced that X is going to happen.”
The Foron noted that JP Morgan was in a good position for higher interest rates when most of its friends were sentenced to 2023, when the rates were increased and those who were sentenced to low yielding bonds.
“For many years, ‘Be prepared for 5% for 10 years, and we all thought he was mad because it was 1% at the time,” the Foron said. “It turns out that being ready is not a bad thing.”
The best description of the door’s view of Diman is that no matter how big and powerful JP Morgan is, financial companies may be weak. Financial history is one of the rise and decline of organizations, sometimes when managers are satisfied or greedy.
In fact, three bear sterns in a cemetery of bank logos that are no longer used, Washington Mutual and First republic – It is added by JP Morgan.
During their bank Investor’s Day meeting This month, in the last decade, Diman pointed out that JP Morgan was one of the only companies to earn more than 17%annually.
“If you go back to 10 years before, okay, a lot of people have earned more than 17%” Told. “Almost everyone was bankrupt. Do you hear what I said now?
“Every major financial company in the world did not do it,” he said. “It’s a rough world there.”
