Why France’s Turmoil Is a Serious Concern for Europe

The French government has fallen after the opposition parties in the French parliament supported it A vote of no confidence Against Prime Minister Michel Barnier, who used special powers to force through the social security budget on Monday.

That the country is in shambles – political and economic – are not the only serious concerns for French citizens.

These are times of profound global instability.

And France, along with Germany, is traditionally seen as the “motor” of the EU in terms of ideological and political horsepower.

But that motor is sputtering, to put it mildly.

France is not alone in being distracted and distracted by domestic political disputes. Germany will hold a snap general election in February after the recent collapse of its embattled coalition government.

The EU as a whole is affected.

What about the assertive show of strength and unity that Europe aims to maintain in the face of an expansionist, aggressive Kremlin?

And if soon again President Donald Trump reduces or stops the flow of military aid to Kyiv, how will Europe fulfill its promise to remain firmly on Ukraine’s side?

France, along with the UK, is the single largest military power in Europe.

Trump’s return to the White House has filled the EU and Europe more widely with anxiety.

How could his pent-up resentment over the US trade deficit with Europe and European (insufficient) defense spending explode into political realities?

At this pivotal moment in geopolitics, leadership is sorely lacking in the EU. With the rise of more authoritarian, Russian-sympathetic leaders in Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, the bloc began to feel at the helm – and French and German attention weakened and distracted.

For France, there is no real end to the political instability in sight.

President Emmanuel Macron will appoint a new prime minister, but even then parliament remains divided between three mutually loathsome political factions, able to hold each other hostage over much-needed reforms and a new budget.

Here’s another reason why what happens in France matters beyond its borders: it’s the second-largest economy in the eurozone. Its budget deficit is ballooning beyond EU standards. French government debt is similarly eyebrow-raising.

That’s unsettling for French taxpayers worried about the cost of living and uncomfortable for the rest of the eurozone, which fears the reputational consequences for their currency if Big Beast France spins out of control.

Big Beast Germany, meanwhile, the EU’s biggest economy, is also in trouble. Its once-booming export industry (before Trump threatened import tariffs by January 2025) risks dragging the Central and Eastern European neighbors Germany has long used as factory floors into its economically depressed orbit.

In all this, Macron tries to present himself as a calm island.

As his prime minister took to French television on the eve of a no-confidence vote to warn of economic instability, put country before party politics and appeal to French lawmakers to back him and his cost-saving budget, Macron took a markedly different tone.

“We shouldn’t scare people away from these things, we have a strong economy,” he said.

“France is a rich, solid country, it has made many reforms and is sticking to them, it has stable institutions, a stable constitution.”

Macron was speaking from Saudi Arabia, where he wrapped up a three-day visit before returning to Paris shortly before the vote.

And he too is in the firing line.

The gridlock in the French parliament is the result of a snap election he called in France this summer, in which his Renaissance party took quite a beating.

Under French law, no new parliamentary elections can be held for at least a year, meaning no new cost-saving budget until late summer/autumn 2025, even if new elections produce a clear political outcome – not indicated in public opinion polls.

Therefore, among many of Macron’s political opponents, there are growing calls for him to resign. He says this will break the political deadlock in France.

Cynics may point out that they are expecting a fresh French president from their own political group.

Macron describes the idea of ​​an early presidential vote – his full term ends in 2027 – as a “political novel”. They insist that they were voted into power by the French public to serve their interests.

But one politician who has good reason to urge his quick political exit is a woman described as his long-time political nemesis: serial presidential hopeful Marine Le Pen of the hard-right nationalist National Rally Party.

She is under investigation for alleged misuse of EU public funds – something she denies. If found guilty, he could be barred from holding political office for five years. This means that the 2027 French presidential election will have to stay out.

A verdict in her case is expected to be announced at the end of March.

If Macron resigns now, a presidential election would have to be called within 30 days, giving Le Pen the chance to stand and hope she wins this time.

Politically, socially, economically, there is a lot riding on what will happen next in and outside of France.