Winners (and losers) from Royal Mail’s £3.6 billion takeover – as investors prepare to give their thumbs up.

The sale of Royal Mail to an overseas billionaire for £3.6 billion will be a windfall for some investors – but others will lose out if the deal goes ahead.

Ministers have approved Czech tycoon Daniel Kretinsky’s offer to buy postal service parent company International Distribution Services (IDS) for 370p per share.

That would pave the way for Royal Mail to fall into foreign hands for the first time in its 508-year history.

The final decision will fall to shareholders, who must vote to approve the deal, while executives can still speak.

So what does it mean for investors, who will make or lose money in the process, and is there time for others to make money?

Anyone who bought shares in Royal Mail when it was listed on the London stock market more than a decade ago has seen a modest decline.

The shares were selling for 330p each when the Coalition government privatized the company in 2013.

Kretinsky – known as the Czech Sphinx – is offering 370p per share. There was a 40p per share bonus for those who bought it at 330p.

Due to the high demand during the privatization – 700,000 members of the public applied for shares – the brokers were allowed to buy 227 shares per person.

Those who bought the maximum price were £749.10. Now they will earn £839.90 if the sale goes through to 49-year-old Kretinsky. The profit was over £90.

Postal workers will do better. Around 150,000 workers, including posts, were awarded 613 shares each, worth more than £2,000 in the strike.

Employees who have held on to all their shares will receive £2,268 if the deal goes through.

So it looks attractive to employees and those who bought shares in the company in the beginning. Others have bought and sold shares since the privatization.

Others dwell on the beauty benefits. Others are based on serious illnesses. The shares reached 631p in 2018.

A person who bought £1,000 of shares at this price would only get £586 in withdrawals.

But one investor who bought when Royal Mail shares fell to 118p in 2020 is now in the money. A payment of £1,000 at the time would have cost £3,136 under the terms of the agreement.

Now the shareholders have decided after the Government welcomed the proposal of the Czech businessman.

As long as the investors hold 75 percent of the fund and the operation is restored, it will continue – unless the regulators stop it.

Shares last night closed up 0.8 per cent, or 2.8p, at 361.8p, below the offer price and said there was still doubt over whether the deal would go ahead.

An investor who bought £1,000 of shares at 362p today would have made £22 if the withdrawal went through at 370p.

This may be lower than the trading costs, so it may not be worth the trouble if the investor doesn’t want to blow a lot of money. And if investors or managers block it, the share price will fall.

Because of this, investors may be tempted to sell their shares now, even though they are trading at less than the 370p they will receive.

Richard Hunter, head of markets at brokerage Interactive Investor, said: ‘For investors, it’s a question of deciding whether they believe the deal will happen, which seems like it’s not guaranteed.

‘The approval from the Government is one of the last major problems.

‘The report lifted IDS shares to 362p, against a 370p offer.

‘The reason for the difference in those prices is that the market knows the consequences that the shareholders may not vote the agreement, or the Competition and Markets Authority decides to look at the takeover.

‘If the deal is breached, the shares will fall dramatically.

‘The current share price suggests that the deal is less likely to pass, so IDS shareholders will have to wait until 370p arrives, possibly early next year.

‘However, it should be noted that this is not yet a slam dunk.’

Dan Coatsworth, an investment analyst at investment firm AJ Bell, said: ‘The Government and the union are saying that the fate of the company is in the hands of the shareholders.

‘They have to choose whether or not to accept the job.’

He added: ‘The final stages of the takeover are a formality and the clock is ticking down to IDS leaving the UK stock market.

‘It’s been a whirlwind for investors who first bought in at 330p in 2013, which saw the share price rise above 630p in 2018 and hit a record low of 118p in 2020 .’